Global population is anticipated to continue growing at an unprecedented rate over the next 30 years. According to the UN, we are expected to reach 9.7 billion people by 2050, and in order to feed the growing population, we will need to double the current food production. Collectively, we will need to become much more innovative to match the pace in which the world is growing.
Finfish is the most environmentally viable option for animal protein. One study on farmed protein found that 100g of beef produced more than seven times the amount of CO2 than the same amount of farmed fish.
That being said, salmon production has been a topic of contention in recent years. Concerns over damage to local ecosystems as well as the contamination of the local salmon population has impacted public perception. This in turn has negatively affected salmon farmers globally as local governments have become increasingly stringent on permits, forcing companies to pull applications.
Salmon will become increasingly important to help in working towards decreases in CO2 emissions with a growing population. Production limitations due to limited natural resources, governmental regulations, and lack of public support have made it difficult for the industry to match public demand. Salmon producers will need to become more innovative to help increase supply. So what does this mean for the future of the world’s favourite seafood dish?
Continue reading below to learn more.
After experiencing an extended period of decline due to habitat destruction, overfishing, and a lack of regulations for open-net farms, wild salmon populations have begun to bounce back. So does this mean that the majority of our salmon will be wild caught?
Likely not.
The only way we can protect natural salmon populations is if they are monitored carefully with strict rules and regulations to allow their numbers to regenerate. Wild salmon is still recovering from overfishing and the numbers will not bounce back enough to cater to the global population increase and the subsequent food crisis it might cause.
Another compelling reason to avoid dependency on wild caught salmon is their status as a keystone species. This means that their existence plays a crucial role in the overall health and functionality of coastal ecosystems, culture, and economies. According to Pacific Wild, 50% of a salmon’s diet consists of insects, making them “the main insect predator in aquatic environments.” After salmon spawn upriver, their “energy-rich carcasses and eggs are consumed by a variety of predators in coastal watersheds, including wolves, bears, and scavenging birds” and oftentimes consist of as much as 50% of a coastal wolf’s diet.
Wild caught salmon can also be significantly more expensive than farmed salmon. Although there are pros and cons to the health benefits of both farmed and wild salmon, consumers tend to consider wild salmon as the healthier choice, which allows fisheries to charge a premium.
Ocean-based aquaculture has been the dominant force behind the world’s salmon production for decades, with approximately 70% of salmon worldwide coming from farms.
Public perception of ocean-based farming is low, but is mostly due to the poor practices of some open-net farms from years past and unregulated practices in countries with few-to-no regulations. Despite technological advances in the industry that have greatly improved its sustainability, issues like sea lice continue to negatively impact profitability for ocean-based farms.
When the regulatory pendulum swings in the other direction we see roadblocks like Norway’s most recent tax increase for ocean-based aquaculture farms may also prove detrimental to the industry. Some of the world’s largest salmon farmers are already showing disinterest in continuing to grow production in the northern nation in protest to the 40% tax on aquaculture.
So what does this mean for the future of salmon farming? It very well may mean that the majority of salmon we eat could be coming from land.
Land-based aquaculture has been around commercially for over a decade and is projected to grow exponentially in the years to come. Collectively, over two million tonnes of salmon are planned in land-based tanks in the coming years and that number continues to increase.
There are several benefits to land-based aquaculture that have many companies interested in the growing sector. For one, the aforementioned tax increase in Norway does not affect land-based aquaculture, meaning that the industry can expect more growth in the region. Land-based aquaculture also does not have to deal with many of the issues that the ocean-based industry faces, such as sea lice, predator attacks, and damage to coastal ecosystems.
Global perception of land-based aquaculture is better than its ocean counterpart, but despite its positives, the land-based industry has faced several setbacks. Recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) are complex and requires a high degree of control and maintenance. It is also expensive to build and requires a large upfront investment.
Over-feeding can be detrimental to land-based aquaculture, so many farmers prefer to underfeed to avoid water contamination. Underfeeding can produce smaller fish and lengthens production cycles, which is not preferable when creating sustainable animal protein for a growing population. Luckily, AI has recently become more prominent in land-based farms, with one company called ReelData AI creating technology that feeds according to the appetite of the fish resulting in no water quality issues or underfeeding.
The alternative meat industry has been booming in recent years with companies like , Beyond Meat, and Lightlife all becoming popular choices for many who prefer plant-based meat to animal products. Although the industry is expected to expand at a CAGR of around 15% within the next six years, sales have shown a decline of 10.5% at retail, hinting that the once-booming industry is slowing down.
So, what about the future of plant-based salmon? According to VegNews, one Israel-based company Plantish has succeeded in making a salmon fillet that is “as flaky and tasty as the real thing.” Anticipation for the plant-based salmon’s availability in retail stores is promising for the industry, which currently has an excess of companies focusing on plant-based poultry, red meat, and pork.
Other plant-based salmon products have received good reviews by professionals, with some catered specifically to the sushi industry with sashimi-inspired products already widely available. One article in BBC’s GoodFood section discusses different options with suggestions for recipes to help make them taste more realistic.
Although plant-based meats typically have a much lower impact on the environment than most conventional meats, it still has its share of downsides. Popular brands like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are highly processed and often contain higher levels of saturated fat and sodium than their real meat counterparts. Many meat alternative companies also use soy as their main protein. The growing plant-based meat trend has negatively impacted much of the natural rainforests in the Amazon, as Brazil has become the largest producer of soy. Forests that have long been some of the world’s most effective carbon sinks are being destroyed and converted to farmland, negatively impacting wildlife and local populations.
Lab grown salmon has attracted interest over the last year with several venture-backed companies landing multi-million dollar deals. Even Leonardo DiCaprio and Jeff Bezos have gotten behind a $100 million deal with Wildtype.
Cellular salmon has many benefits, and helping to create sustainable animal protein without impacting the natural salmon population is perhaps the most important among them. According to Ben Friedman, Head of Product for Wildtype, the core reason behind Wildtype’s inception was to create salmon that does not impact the declining wild population of salmon. Another added benefit of cellular salmon includes the short time frame needed for cultivation: Wildtype can produce lab-based salmon within six weeks, whereas farmed salmon can take years. Lab-based salmon also does not need to be sent to a processing plant to be cut, which saves on transportation costs and fuel, while increasing freshness by limiting the time it takes to reach consumers.
Lab-grown meat blurs the line ethically for many, with many companies encouraging vegetarians and vegans to consider it as an ethical alternative for animal protein. For the company BlueNalu, they only need to draw cells from a fish once to replicate it. The fish could even be returned to the ocean afterwards.
Cell-cultured salmon may be a common sight on grocery store shelves within the decade, but one study suggests that public perception on lab-grown meat is not encouraging for the burgeoning industry. In the online survey for US participants, only a third of Americans were “definitely or probably willing to eat [lab-grown] meat regularly or as a replacement for farmed meat… vegetarians and vegans were more likely to perceive benefits compared to farmed meat, but were less likely to want to try it than meat eaters.
As of now, several downsides make cellular salmon unlikely to help much with the global food shortage in the short term. For one, Wildtype cannot be heated above 212°F without falling apart, so it is currently only suitable for sushi. Secondly, the cost for one serving of their salmon in 2019 was approximately $200. Not exactly comparable to natural salmon… yet!
A well-balanced and diverse approach to salmon production may be the only solution to sustainably enabling scale, profits, and resiliency with an animal protein that limits the production of CO2.
There’s no singular solution to creating sustainable salmon productions at scale. Blue technology is advancing fast and companies are constantly developing new ways to help solve the world’s food security crisis. Every approach will be necessary if we are going to feed the growing population.
Caitlyn Parsons
Marketing and Public Relations Associate
ReelData AI
caitlyn.parsons@reeldata.ai
